Markov inputs in cost-effectiveness analysis
Variable | Baseline | Range low | Range high | Distribution | Reference |
Survival input | |||||
HR of HAIC-FO versus sorafenib for OS | 0.408 | 0.301 | 0.553 | Normal | 13 |
HR of HAIC-FO versus sorafenib for PFS | 0.451 | 0.340 | 0.598 | Normal | 13 |
Weibull OS survival model with HAIC-FO | λ 0.0170272, γ 1.3635872 | 13 | |||
Weibull PFS survival model with HAIC-FO | λ 0.071169, γ 1.037127 | 13 | |||
Weibull OS survival model with sorafenib | λ 0.0151598, γ 1.8083652 | 13 | |||
Weibull PFS survival model with sorafenib | λ 0.0888648, γ 1.3537234 | 13 | |||
Utility input | |||||
Utility of PFS | 0.760 | 0.610 | 0.910 | Beta | 17 |
Utility of PD | 0.680 | 0.540 | 0.820 | Beta | 17 |
Disutility due to neutropenia | 0.090 | 0.006 | 0.120 | Beta | 30 |
Disutility due to fatigue | 0.073 | 0.037 | 0.110 | Beta | 30 |
Cost input | |||||
Sorafenib (per month) | 3077.760 | 2462.208 | 3693.312 | Gamma | 17 |
Oxaliplatin (per month) | 364.413 | 291.531 | 437.296 | Gamma | 17 |
Cisplatin (per month) | 14.310 | 11.448 | 17.172 | Gamma | 31 |
Fluorouracil (per month) | 686.200 | 548.960 | 823.440 | Gamma | 17 |
Leucovorin (per month) | 31.653 | 25.323 | 37.984 | Gamma | 17 |
HAIC procedure (per month) | 2422.707 | 1938.165 | 2907.248 | Gamma | 17 |
Hospitalisation (per month) | 502.560 | 402.048 | 603.072 | Gamma | 17 |
Test (per month) | 469.587 | 375.669 | 563.504 | Gamma | 17 |
Second line (per month) | 959.160 | 767.328 | 1150.992 | Gamma | 9 |
Body surface area | 1.720 | 1.380 | 2.060 | Normal | 17 |
Discount rate | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.050 | Fixed | 17 |
Regarding the choice of survival distribution, we evaluated multiple potential distributions, including Weibull, log-logistic, log-normal, gamma, Gompertz and exponential distributions. We selected the Weibull distribution based on the principle of minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values, as smaller AIC and BIC values indicate a better model fit.
AST, aspartate aminotransferase; FO, oxaliplatin+fluorouracil; HAIC, hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy; OS, overall survival; PD, progression disease; PFS, progression-free survival.