Model-simulated clinical outcomes of chronic hepatitis B, in comparison to observed estimates reported in the literature
| Clinical outcome | Model-projected incidence rate, per 100 PY | Observed incidence rate, per 100 PY (95% CI) |
| HBeAg loss | ||
| Western Pacific | 5.18 | 5.53 (4.05 to 7.55)29 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 6.33 | 7.43 (6.30 to 8.75)21 |
| HBsAg loss | ||
| Western Pacific | 2.35 | 1.87 (1.23 to 2.64)23 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 1.00 | 1.0 (0.8 to 1.2)21 |
| Cirrhosis | 0.39 | 0.62 (0.54 to 0.70)25 |
| HCC | 0.30 | 0.42 (0.21 to 0.63)43 0.72 (0.21 to 1.23)41 |
HBsAg loss, cirrhosis and HCC are simulated in HBeAg-negative phases of disease. All comparator values are derived from published meta-analyses with the exception of cirrhosis, for which no meta-analysis was available. The comparator incidence rate of cirrhosis was derived for people in HBeAg-negative phases of illness in the REVEAL study.25
HBeAg, HBV ‘e’ antigen; HBsAg, HBV surface antigen; HBV, hepatitis B virus; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; PY, person-years;