PEPFAR impacts on four immunisation rates: traditional and staggered DID estimates
| Outcomes and estimation methods | All PEPFAR countries | COP countries | Non-COP countries | High-intensity PEPFAR countries | Medium-intensity PEPFAR countries | Low-intensity PEPFAR countries |
| DPT immunisation rate | ||||||
| Means | 78.0 | 74.2 | 79.9 | 74.8 | 80.1 | 79.0 |
| Model 1. Unadjusted model (traditional) | 8.421*** | 8.607*** | 8.221*** | 9.728*** | 5.467*** | 9.855*** |
| Model 1. Unadjusted model (staggered) | 8.206*** | 6.538*** | 10.80*** | 8.373*** | 4.149** | 14.49*** |
| Model 2. Adjusted model (traditional) | 8.810*** | 8.693*** | 8.889*** | 9.380*** | 6.635*** | 10.07*** |
| Model 2. Adjusted model (staggered) | 7.328*** | 7.459*** | 8.334*** | 8.326*** | 6.836*** | 8.979*** |
| Hepatitis B immunisation rate | ||||||
| Means | 79.1 | 74.4 | 81.7 | 80.7 | 78.3 | 78.5 |
| Model 1. Unadjusted model (traditional) | 1.374 | 8.027** | −2.097 | 2.661 | 2.163 | −0.648 |
| Model 1. Unadjusted model (staggered) | 5.436** | 16.33*** | 3.000 | 10.78* | 3.096 | 6.397 |
| Model 2. Adjusted model (traditional) | 6.667** | 13.64*** | 3.638 | 8.922** | 5.446 | 7.410* |
| Model 2. Adjusted model (staggered) | 10.52*** | 21.33*** | 7.050*** | 17.15*** | 6.967** | 9.912*** |
| Measles immunisation rate | ||||||
| Means | 77.5 | 74.5 | 79.1 | 72.9 | 79.9 | 79.7 |
| Model 1. Unadjusted model (traditional) | 6.644*** | 7.192*** | 6.260*** | 7.034*** | 4.287** | 8.439*** |
| Model 1. Unadjusted model (staggered) | 6.816*** | 5.091*** | 9.077*** | 5.692*** | 3.280* | 13.28*** |
| Model 2. Adjusted model (traditional) | 6.946*** | 7.462*** | 6.560*** | 6.973*** | 5.061*** | 8.529*** |
| Model 2. Adjusted model (staggered) | 5.515*** | 5.546*** | 6.115*** | 5.158*** | 5.357*** | 7.083*** |
| Prevalence of newborns protected against tetanus | ||||||
| Means | 75.7 | 75.6 | 75.8 | 75.1 | 78.3 | 74.2 |
| Model 1. Unadjusted model (traditional) | 6.069*** | 4.775** | 6.995*** | 6.154*** | 5.845** | 6.059*** |
| Model 1. Unadjusted model (staggered) | 5.218*** | 5.444*** | 5.942*** | 7.005*** | 4.966** | 5.401*** |
| Model 2. Adjusted model (traditional) | 5.240*** | 3.736* | 6.393*** | 5.271*** | 5.510** | 5.229*** |
| Model 2. Adjusted model (staggered) | 3.619*** | 4.053** | 4.103*** | 5.475*** | 5.391** | 1.022 |
*p< 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.
COP, country operational plans; DID, difference-in-differences; DPT, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus; PEPFAR, President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.