True diabetes prevalence (millions) estimated by different epidemiological models and from the QOF trend
| Source of estimate | Population | Data source | Details of series | |||||||||
| First year | Prevalence | Final year | Prevalence | Mean annual increase (%)* | Projections | |||||||
| 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | ||||||||
| Shaw et al21 | UK: 20–79 (UN, 2007) | HSE (2003) | 2010 | 2.14 | 2030 | 2.55 | 0.02 | 2.55 | ||||
| Whiting et al22 | UK: 20–79 (UN, 2011) | HSE (2004 and 2009) | 2011 | 3.06 | 2030 | 3.65 | 0.031 | 3.65 | ||||
| Guariguata et al23 | UK: 20–79 (UN, 2011) | HSE (2004) | 2013 | 2.98 | 2035 | 3.62 | 0.029 | 3.62 | ||||
| Holman et al18 | England: >15 (ONS) | HSE (2006) | 2010 | 3.10 | 2030 | 4.60 (3.25–6.88) | 0.075 | 3.47 (2.47–5.07) | 3.82 (2.70–5.62) | 4.19 (2.93–6.19) | 4.60 (3.25–6.88) | |
| PHE5 | England: >15 (ONS) | HSE (2012, 2013 and, 2014) | 2015 | 3.81 | 2035 | 4.94 | 0.056 | 3.81 | 4.09 | 4.39 | 4.68 | 4.94 |
| QOF data and trend† | England: >15 registered with GPs | QOF (2004–2005 to 2017–2018) | 2004–2005 | 2.36 | 2017-18 | 4.26 | 0.147 | 3.99 (3.88–4.09) | 4.72 (4.61–4.84) | 5.46 (5.32–5.59) | 6.19 (6.04–6.35) | 6.93 (6.75–7.11) |
*Estimated as the annual mean increase from the first estimate to the last.
†To estimate the true prevalence from the QOF data and trend both sets of estimates were increased by a third. They are based on data from 2004-5 to 2017-18 and the estimated trend from 2015 to 2035.
GP, general practitioner; HSE, Health Surveys for England; PHE, Public Health England; QOF, Quality and Outcomes Framework.