Table 4

True diabetes prevalence (millions) estimated by different epidemiological models and from the QOF trend

Source of estimatePopulationData sourceDetails of series
First yearPrevalenceFinal yearPrevalenceMean annual increase (%)*Projections
20152020202520302035
Shaw et al21UK: 20–79 (UN, 2007)HSE (2003)20102.1420302.550.022.55
Whiting et al22UK: 20–79 (UN, 2011)HSE (2004 and 2009)20113.0620303.650.0313.65
Guariguata et al23UK: 20–79 (UN, 2011)HSE (2004)20132.9820353.620.0293.62
Holman et al18England: >15 (ONS)HSE (2006)20103.1020304.60
(3.25–6.88)
0.0753.47
(2.47–5.07)
3.82
(2.70–5.62)
4.19
(2.93–6.19)
4.60 (3.25–6.88)
PHE5England: >15 (ONS)HSE (2012, 2013 and, 2014)20153.8120354.940.0563.814.094.394.684.94
QOF data and trend†England: >15 registered with GPsQOF (2004–2005 to 2017–2018)2004–20052.362017-184.260.1473.99
(3.88–4.09)
4.72
(4.61–4.84)
5.46
(5.32–5.59)
6.19
(6.04–6.35)
6.93
(6.75–7.11)
  • *Estimated as the annual mean increase from the first estimate to the last.

  • †To estimate the true prevalence from the QOF data and trend both sets of estimates were increased by a third. They are based on data from 2004-5 to 2017-18 and the estimated trend from 2015 to 2035.

  • GP, general practitioner; HSE, Health Surveys for England; PHE, Public Health England; QOF, Quality and Outcomes Framework.