Projections of the true prevalence of T2D in England for 2025
| Model | Projections for 2025 (millions) | |||
| Statistical | Markov (numbers with intermediate hyperglycaemia in 2015) | |||
| Point estimate | 95% CIs | 5.05* | Zero | |
| PHE | 3.95 | n.a. | ||
| QOF trend | 4.91 | 4.79 to 5.03 | ||
| Model 1† | 5.64 | 5.01 | ||
| Model 2‡ | 3.86 | |||
| Model 3§ | 9.07 | 8.57 | ||
*As estimated by PHE.
†Based on Roberts et al.35
‡Based on Roberts et al,35 but modified to reproduce the PHE trend to 2035.
§Based on Neuman et al.32
n.a., not available; PHE, Public Health England; QOF, Quality and Outcomes Framework; T2D, type 2 diabetes.