Table 2

Study characteristics of model development studies: analysis and model output

Study	Outcome(s) or endpoint(s)	Time frame of predictions	Model type	Statistical methods	Included predictors	Missing data handling	Number of groups	Internal validation method	Discrimination results (c-index or AUC)	Calibration results	Model availability
Margel et al 201421	PCSM and ACM	5 year	N/A	Nested Cox model	Two models: 1=age, Johns Hopkins comorbidity group, year of cohort entry, socioeconomic status and housing status. 2=as above + Gleason grade and cancer volume.	Complete case analysis	N/A	Bootstrapping	Admin data only model ACM c-index 0.70 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.71) PCSM 0.76 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.78) Extended model ACM 0.74 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.75) PCSM: 0.85 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.87)	NR	No
Nguyen et al 200922	PCSM and ACM	5 year	Group-based stratification	Fine & Grey	PSA, PSAV, stage, Gleason	NR	four groups	KM curves only	NR	NR	Yes - paper
Feuer et al 201223	PCSM, OCM and LE	3–5 and 10 year	Nomogram	Cox model	Preclinical model: stage, Gleason, age, race, marital status, (comorbidity if 66+)	Complete case analysis	‘Individualised’	Time dependent AUC	10 year AUCs: Pretreatment model: <66 years, PCSM 0.82, OCM 0.69, 66+yrs PCSM 0.87, OCM 0.61	Plots	No
Kutikov et al 201224	PCSM and NPCM	10 year	Nomogram	Fine & Grey	Age, race, comorbidity, primary treatment (RT vs RP), receipt of ADT and modified CAPRA score	Imputed mean values	Nomogram	NR	NR	NR	Yes - paper
Cowen et al 200625	Overall survival	5, 10 and 15 year and median LE	Nomogram	Cox model	Age, Charlson, performance status, angina, BMI, smoking, marital status, PSA, Gleason, treatment	Imputation	260 points	Within complete case sub-cohort	c-index 0.73	Plots	Yes - paper
Kerkmeijer et al 201626	DSS and OS	10 year DSS	Nomogram	Cox model	T-stage, grade(on 1–3 scale) PSA, age	Single imputation	16 points - five groups	Bootstrapping	c-index 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.82) DSS, 0.68 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.70) OS	Plots	Yes - paper
Gnanapragasam et al 201627	PCSM	N/A	Group-based stratification	Cox model	PSA, grade group, T-stage integers	Complete case analysis	five groups	Random validation cohort	c-index 0.75 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.77) for PCSM	Plots	Yes - paper and online model
Tewari et al 200428	PCSM and ACM	10 year	Look up tables	Cox model	Age, grade (three groups), PSA, treatment, comorbidity, race	Complete case analysis	n/a	Unclear	0.63 PCSM, 0.69 OS	NR	Yes - paper
Howlader et al 201429	OS, PCa death, other cause death	5 year	Look up tables	Unclear	Age, stage (localised/regional/distant), comorbidity	NR	n/a	NR	NR	NR	Yes - paper

ACM, all cause mortality; AUC, area under the curve; BMI, body mass index; CAPRA, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment; DSS, disease specific survival; KM, Kaplan-Meier; LE, life expectancy; N/A, not available; NPCM, non prostate cancer mortality; NR, not recorded; OCM, other cause mortality; OS, overall survival; PCa, prostate cancer; PCSM, prostate cancer specific mortality; PSA, prostate-specific antigen; PSAV, prostate-specific antigen velocity.