Table 3

Effect of intervention on trauma and orthopaedics referral rates (using seasonality adjusted series ARIMA analysis)

	Estimate of effect	P value	95% CI of estimate of effect	Relative effect (%)
Effect at 6 months	−0.31	0.001	−0.48 to –0.14	−32
Effect at 12 months	−0.30	0.011	−0.53 to –0.07	−30
Effect at 18 months	−0.30	0.048	−0.59 to 0.00	−30
Effect at 24 months	−0.29	0.113	−0.65 to 0.07	−30
Effect at 30 months	−0.28	0.191	−0.71 to 0.14	−28
Effect at 36 months	−0.28	0.269	−0.77 to 0.22	−27

ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average.