Table 3

Comparison of the performance of the new GARFIELD-AF risk model with CHA₂DS₂-VASc (death, stroke or systemic embolism) or HAS-BLED* for major bleeding in all patients overall and by treated and untreated with anticoagulation and also for patients with lower stroke risk.

Events	C-index		P value of test for one risk model over the other
Events	GARFIELD-AF risk model	CHA₂DS₂-VASc (HAS-BLED for bleeding)*	GARFIELD-AF risk model	CHA₂DS₂-VASc (HAS-BLED for bleeding)*
All patients
All-cause mortality	0.77 (0.76–0.78)	0.66 (0.64–0.67)	<0.001	0.165
Anticoagulant treated	0.75 (0.73–0.77)	0.65 (0.63–0.66)	<0.001	0.186
Anticoagulant untreated	0.78 (0.77–0.80)	0.68 (0.66–0.70)	<0.001	0.507
Ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism	0.69 (0.67–0.71)	0.64 (0.61–0.66)	<0.001	0.006
Anticoagulant treated	0.67 (0.64–0.71)	0.64 (0.60–0.67)	<0.001	0.020
Anticoagulant untreated	0.69 (0.65–0.72)	0.65 (0.61–0.68)	<0.001	0.047
Major bleed (anticoagulant treated)	0.66 (0.62–0.69)	0.64 (0.61–0.68)*	<0.001	0.001*
Very low to low risk patients CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women); HAS-BLED 0 for bleeding
All-cause mortality	0.69 (0.64–0.75)	0.50 (0.45–0.55)	<0.001	0.383
Ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism	0.65 (0.56–0.73)	0.59 (0.50–0.67)	0.004	0.108
Major bleed (anticoagulant treated)	0.60 (0.47–0.73)	0.55 (0.53–0.56)*	0.299	0.403*
Low to intermediate or higher risk patients (sensitivity analysis) CHA₂DS₂-VASc score 0, 1 or 2 (men) and 1, 2 or 3 (women); HAS-BLED score 0 or 1 for bleeding
All-cause mortality	0.72 (0.70–0.75)	0.56 (0.54–0.59)	<0.001	0.377
Ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism	0.67 (0.63–0.72)	0.58 (0.54–0.62)	<0.001	0.087
Major bleed (anticoagulant treated)	0.64 (0.58–0.71)	0.62 (0.58–0.65)*	0.001	1.000*

GARFIELD-AF, Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation.