Comparison of the performance of the new GARFIELD-AF risk model with CHA2DS2-VASc (death, stroke or systemic embolism) or HAS-BLED* for major bleeding in all patients overall and by treated and untreated with anticoagulation and also for patients with lower stroke risk.
Events | C-index | P value of test for one risk model over the other | ||
GARFIELD-AF risk model | CHA2DS2-VASc (HAS-BLED for bleeding)* | GARFIELD-AF risk model | CHA2DS2-VASc (HAS-BLED for bleeding)* | |
All patients | ||||
All-cause mortality | 0.77 (0.76–0.78) | 0.66 (0.64–0.67) | <0.001 | 0.165 |
Anticoagulant treated | 0.75 (0.73–0.77) | 0.65 (0.63–0.66) | <0.001 | 0.186 |
Anticoagulant untreated | 0.78 (0.77–0.80) | 0.68 (0.66–0.70) | <0.001 | 0.507 |
Ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism | 0.69 (0.67–0.71) | 0.64 (0.61–0.66) | <0.001 | 0.006 |
Anticoagulant treated | 0.67 (0.64–0.71) | 0.64 (0.60–0.67) | <0.001 | 0.020 |
Anticoagulant untreated | 0.69 (0.65–0.72) | 0.65 (0.61–0.68) | <0.001 | 0.047 |
Major bleed (anticoagulant treated) | 0.66 (0.62–0.69) | 0.64 (0.61–0.68)* | <0.001 | 0.001* |
Very low to low risk patients CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women); HAS-BLED 0 for bleeding | ||||
All-cause mortality | 0.69 (0.64–0.75) | 0.50 (0.45–0.55) | <0.001 | 0.383 |
Ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism | 0.65 (0.56–0.73) | 0.59 (0.50–0.67) | 0.004 | 0.108 |
Major bleed (anticoagulant treated) | 0.60 (0.47–0.73) | 0.55 (0.53–0.56)* | 0.299 | 0.403* |
Low to intermediate or higher risk patients (sensitivity analysis) CHA2DS2-VASc score 0, 1 or 2 (men) and 1, 2 or 3 (women); HAS-BLED score 0 or 1 for bleeding | ||||
All-cause mortality | 0.72 (0.70–0.75) | 0.56 (0.54–0.59) | <0.001 | 0.377 |
Ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism | 0.67 (0.63–0.72) | 0.58 (0.54–0.62) | <0.001 | 0.087 |
Major bleed (anticoagulant treated) | 0.64 (0.58–0.71) | 0.62 (0.58–0.65)* | 0.001 | 1.000* |
GARFIELD-AF, Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation.