Table 3

Comparison of the performance of the new GARFIELD-AF risk model with CHA2DS2-VASc (death, stroke or systemic embolism) or HAS-BLED* for major bleeding in all patients overall and by treated and untreated with anticoagulation and also for patients with lower stroke risk.

EventsC-indexP value of test for one risk model over the other
GARFIELD-AF risk modelCHA2DS2-VASc (HAS-BLED for bleeding)*GARFIELD-AF risk modelCHA2DS2-VASc (HAS-BLED for bleeding)*
All patients
All-cause mortality0.77 (0.76–0.78)0.66 (0.64–0.67)<0.0010.165
Anticoagulant treated0.75 (0.73–0.77)0.65 (0.63–0.66)<0.0010.186
Anticoagulant untreated0.78 (0.77–0.80)0.68 (0.66–0.70)<0.0010.507
Ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism0.69 (0.67–0.71)0.64 (0.61–0.66)<0.0010.006
Anticoagulant treated0.67 (0.64–0.71)0.64 (0.60–0.67)<0.0010.020
Anticoagulant untreated0.69 (0.65–0.72)0.65 (0.61–0.68)<0.0010.047
Major bleed (anticoagulant treated)0.66 (0.62–0.69)0.64 (0.61–0.68)*<0.0010.001*
Very low to low risk patients
CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women); HAS-BLED 0 for bleeding
All-cause mortality0.69 (0.64–0.75)0.50 (0.45–0.55)<0.0010.383
Ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism0.65 (0.56–0.73)0.59 (0.50–0.67)0.0040.108
Major bleed (anticoagulant treated)0.60 (0.47–0.73)0.55 (0.53–0.56)*0.2990.403*
Low to intermediate or higher risk patients (sensitivity analysis)
CHA2DS2-VASc score 0, 1 or 2 (men) and 1, 2 or 3 (women); HAS-BLED score 0 or 1 for bleeding
All-cause mortality0.72 (0.70–0.75)0.56 (0.54–0.59)<0.0010.377
Ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism0.67 (0.63–0.72)0.58 (0.54–0.62)<0.0010.087
Major bleed (anticoagulant treated)0.64 (0.58–0.71)0.62 (0.58–0.65)*0.0011.000*
  • GARFIELD-AF, Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation.