Table 3

Comparison of three predictive models for death within 12 months

Model 1Model 2Model 3
OR (95% CI)OR (95% CI)OR (95% CI)
Gender (man vs woman)1.15 (0.98 to 1.35)1.13 (0.96 to 1.33)1.09 (0.92 to 1.28)
  P value0.0760.1460.324
Age group (vs 15–59 years)
 0–140.32 (0.19 to 0.54)0.36 (0.21 to 0.62)0.40 (0.23 to 0.69)
 60–642.06 (1.48 to 2.87)1.86 (1.31 to 2.64)1.70 (1.20 to 2.43)
 65–692.18 (1.61 to 2.94)2.19 (1.60 to 2.99)1.92 (1.39 to 2.65)
 70–743.07 (2.32 to 4.08)2.93 (2.17 to 3.96)2.48 (1.82 to 3.38)
 75–793.27 (2.47 to 4.32)3.52 (2.62 to 4.73)2.90 (2.14 to 3.93)
 80–844.12 (3.15 to 5.38)4.03 (3.01 to 5.38)3.48 (2.59 to 4.69)
 85+years5.52 (4.31 to 7.07)6.07 (4.63 to 7.96)4.89 (3.69 to 6.47)
  P value<0.0001<0.0001<0.0001
Deprivation quintile (vs Q5, least deprived)
 Q1 (most deprived)1.54 (1.17 to 2.02)1.45 (1.08 to 1.94)1.34 (1.00 to 1.81)
 Q21.28 (0.97 to 1.69)1.23 (0.92 to 1.64)1.19 (0.89 to 1.59)
 Q31.31 (0.99 to 1.74)1.34 (0.99 to 1.80)1.30 (0.96 to 1.75)
 Q41.24 (0.92 to 1.67)1.26 (0.92 to 1.72)1.22 (0.89 to 1.67)
  P value0.0380.1650.364
 Specialty (vs surgical)
 Medical3.16 (2.66 to 3.76)2.57 (2.12 to 3.12)2.37 (1.94 to 2.89)
 Procedure0.26 (0.12 to 0.57)0.31 (0.14 to 0.69)0.47 (0.21 to 1.07)
  P value<0.0001<0.0001<0.0001
Ethnicity (vs European/NZ)
 Māori1.62 (1.25 to 2.10)1.52 (1.17 to 1.98)
 Pacific1.25 (0.87 to 1.80)1.20 (0.83 to 1.74)
 Asian1.02 (0.65 to 1.60)1.02 (0.64 to 1.61)
 Other1.67 (0.95 to 2.92)1.91 (1.08 to 3.38)
  P value0.00390.009
Admission type (vs acute)
 Waitlisted0.34 (0.24 to 0.48)0.37 (0.26 to 0.52)
 Arranged0.94 (0.71 to 1.25)0.87 (0.65 to 1.15)
  P value<0.0001<0.0001
Hospitalisation history (yes vs no)
 Cancer4.20 (3.53 to 4.98)3.92 (3.29 to 4.67)
  P value<0.0001<0.0001
Respiratory1.82 (1.53 to 2.16)
  P value<0.0001
Digestive1.51 (1.26 to 1.80)
  P value<0.0001
Circulatory1.34 (1.09, 1.64)
  P value0.0048
Injury, poisoning, external cause1.08 (0.91 to 1.28)
  P value0.378
Model fit
   C-index0.790.840.85
  • 45 people were omitted from all models because of missing data for deprivation.