Comparison of three predictive models for death within 12 months
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
| OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | |
| Gender (man vs woman) | 1.15 (0.98 to 1.35) | 1.13 (0.96 to 1.33) | 1.09 (0.92 to 1.28) |
| P value | 0.076 | 0.146 | 0.324 |
| Age group (vs 15–59 years) | |||
| 0–14 | 0.32 (0.19 to 0.54) | 0.36 (0.21 to 0.62) | 0.40 (0.23 to 0.69) |
| 60–64 | 2.06 (1.48 to 2.87) | 1.86 (1.31 to 2.64) | 1.70 (1.20 to 2.43) |
| 65–69 | 2.18 (1.61 to 2.94) | 2.19 (1.60 to 2.99) | 1.92 (1.39 to 2.65) |
| 70–74 | 3.07 (2.32 to 4.08) | 2.93 (2.17 to 3.96) | 2.48 (1.82 to 3.38) |
| 75–79 | 3.27 (2.47 to 4.32) | 3.52 (2.62 to 4.73) | 2.90 (2.14 to 3.93) |
| 80–84 | 4.12 (3.15 to 5.38) | 4.03 (3.01 to 5.38) | 3.48 (2.59 to 4.69) |
| 85+years | 5.52 (4.31 to 7.07) | 6.07 (4.63 to 7.96) | 4.89 (3.69 to 6.47) |
| P value | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 |
| Deprivation quintile (vs Q5, least deprived) | |||
| Q1 (most deprived) | 1.54 (1.17 to 2.02) | 1.45 (1.08 to 1.94) | 1.34 (1.00 to 1.81) |
| Q2 | 1.28 (0.97 to 1.69) | 1.23 (0.92 to 1.64) | 1.19 (0.89 to 1.59) |
| Q3 | 1.31 (0.99 to 1.74) | 1.34 (0.99 to 1.80) | 1.30 (0.96 to 1.75) |
| Q4 | 1.24 (0.92 to 1.67) | 1.26 (0.92 to 1.72) | 1.22 (0.89 to 1.67) |
| P value | 0.038 | 0.165 | 0.364 |
| Specialty (vs surgical) | |||
| Medical | 3.16 (2.66 to 3.76) | 2.57 (2.12 to 3.12) | 2.37 (1.94 to 2.89) |
| Procedure | 0.26 (0.12 to 0.57) | 0.31 (0.14 to 0.69) | 0.47 (0.21 to 1.07) |
| P value | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 |
| Ethnicity (vs European/NZ) | |||
| Māori | 1.62 (1.25 to 2.10) | 1.52 (1.17 to 1.98) | |
| Pacific | 1.25 (0.87 to 1.80) | 1.20 (0.83 to 1.74) | |
| Asian | 1.02 (0.65 to 1.60) | 1.02 (0.64 to 1.61) | |
| Other | 1.67 (0.95 to 2.92) | 1.91 (1.08 to 3.38) | |
| P value | 0.0039 | 0.009 | |
| Admission type (vs acute) | |||
| Waitlisted | 0.34 (0.24 to 0.48) | 0.37 (0.26 to 0.52) | |
| Arranged | 0.94 (0.71 to 1.25) | 0.87 (0.65 to 1.15) | |
| P value | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | |
| Hospitalisation history (yes vs no) | |||
| Cancer | 4.20 (3.53 to 4.98) | 3.92 (3.29 to 4.67) | |
| P value | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | |
| Respiratory | 1.82 (1.53 to 2.16) | ||
| P value | <0.0001 | ||
| Digestive | 1.51 (1.26 to 1.80) | ||
| P value | <0.0001 | ||
| Circulatory | 1.34 (1.09, 1.64) | ||
| P value | 0.0048 | ||
| Injury, poisoning, external cause | 1.08 (0.91 to 1.28) | ||
| P value | 0.378 | ||
| Model fit | |||
| C-index | 0.79 | 0.84 | 0.85 |
45 people were omitted from all models because of missing data for deprivation.