Unadjusted associations between career intentions and general practitioner (GP) attributes
| How likely is it that you will permanently leave direct patient care within the next 2 years? | How likely is it that you will permanently leave direct patient care within the next 5 years? | How likely is it that you will reduce your weekly average hours spent in direct patient care within the next 5 years? | How likely is it that you will take a career break (or another career break) within the next 5 years? | ||||||
| OR* (95% CI) | p | OR* (95% CI) | p | OR* (95% CI) | p | OR* (95% CI) | p | ||
| Gender | Male | Reference | <0.001 | Reference | <0.001 | Reference | <0.001 | Reference | 0.046 |
| Female | 0.51 (0.41 to 0.63) | 0.55 (0.46 to 0.66) | 0.48 (0.41 to 0.58) | 1.20 (1.00 to 1.44) | |||||
| Age | <40 | 0.75 (0.48 to 1.16) | <0.001 | 0.49 (0.34 to 0.70) | <0.001 | 1.24 (0.98 to 1.56) | <0.001 | 2.34 (1.83 to 2.98) | <0.001 |
| 40–49 | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||||
| 50–54 | 1.65 (1.12 to 2.43) | 4.00 (3.02 to 5.28) | 2.04 (1.58 to 2.63) | 1.24 (0.95 to 1.63) | |||||
| 55–59 | 9.32 (6.72 to 12.92) | 30.04 (21.04 to 42.90) | 5.00 (3.74 to 6.69) | 1.59 (1.22 to 2.08) | |||||
| 60–69 | 22.22 (14.43 to 34.22) | 91.60 (41.88 to 200.36) | 7.38 (4.58 to 11.88) | 1.61 (1.11 to 2.35) | |||||
| 70+ | 45.86 (12.84 to 163.84) | † | 3.86 (1.23 to 12.10) | 1.55 (0.56 to 4.32) | |||||
| Country of qualification | UK/Ireland | Reference | 0.450 | Reference | 0.132 | Reference | 0.921 | Reference | 0.470 |
| Europe | 0.56 (0.27 to 1.14) | 0.60 (0.35 to 1.02) | 0.85 (0.52 to 1.39) | 0.65 (0.37 to 1.12) | |||||
| South Asia | 0.88 (0.29 to 2.66) | 0.43 (0.14 to 1.32) | 1.10 (0.45 to 2.70) | 0.95 (0.38 to 2.39) | |||||
| Other | 1.05 (0.47 to 2.32) | 0.98 (0.51 to 1.90) | 0.95 (0.50 to 1.80) | 0.88 (0.45 to 1.73) | |||||
| Ethnic group | White | Reference | 0.300 | Reference | 0.032 | Reference | 0.581 | Reference | 0.610 |
| Mixed | † | 0.60 (0.26 to 1.36) | 0.74 (0.35 to 1.57) | 1.57 (0.74 to 3.31) | |||||
| Asian | 0.87 (0.48 to 1.57) | 0.43 (0.25 to 0.76) | 1.27 (0.78 to 2.05) | 1.00 (0.61 to 1.63) | |||||
| Black | 3.59 (0.89 to 14.41) | 1.49 (0.37 to 5.99) | 2.23 (0.45 to 11.07) | 0.60 (0.12 to 2.99) | |||||
| Other | 0.77 (0.22 to 2.69) | 0.68 (0.24 to 1.96) | 1.36 (0.50 to 3.70) | 1.61 (0.62 to 4.18) | |||||
| Role/position | GP partner | Reference | <0.001 | Reference | <0.001 | Reference | <0.001 | Reference | <0.001 |
| Salaried GP | 0.61 (0.46 to 0.83) | 0.43 (0.34 to 0.55) | 0.63 (0.51 to 0.78) | 1.25 (1.00 to 1.56) | |||||
| Locum GP | 1.58 (1.18 to 2.11) | 1.08 (0.82 to 1.41) | 1.34 (1.02 to 1.76) | 1.72 (1.32 to 2.24) | |||||
| Other | 1.12 (0.61 to 2.08) | 0.72 (0.40 to 1.26) | 0.79 (0.47 to 1.34) | 0.85 (0.48 to 1.52) | |||||
| Reported morale | Very low | 0.99 (0.45 to 2.17) | <0.001 | 1.85 (0.81 to 4.19) | <0.001 | 2.58 (1.19 to 5.59) | <0.001 | 2.24 (1.01 to 4.95) | <0.001 |
| Low | 0.42 (0.19 to 0.91) | 0.78 (0.35 to 1.75) | 1.31 (0.62 to 2.77) | 1.14 (0.52 to 2.49) | |||||
| Neither low/high | 0.30 (0.14 to 0.65) | 0.62 (0.28 to 1.40) | 0.82 (0.39 to 1.73) | 0.81 (0.37 to 1.78) | |||||
| High | 0.40 (0.18 to 0.90) | 0.62 (0.27 to 1.42) | 0.54 (0.25 to 1.16) | 0.55 (0.24 to 1.24) | |||||
| Very high | Reference | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||||
*ORs >1 indicate category is more likely to leave direct patient care/reduce hours/take a career break than the reference category.
†This group has been excluded from the analysis due to perfect prediction, that is, all over 70 year olds reported being likely to leave direct patient in 5 years, and no mixed ethnicity GPs reported being likely to leave direct patient care in 2 years.