Table 5

Multiple linear regression including all contextual variables and fourth year performance

VariableSDB95% CISig
School type
State comprehensive (reference)74.252.43
Sixth form college74.312.46−0.12−0.82 to 0.570.727
State other74.721.920.67−0.72 to 1.920.370
State grammar73.922.58−0.22−0.98 to 0.540.566
Independent school73.562.46−0.29−0.99 to 0.420.426
Ethnicity
White (reference)74.412.33
Black74.402.34−2.51−5.77 to 0.750.131
Asian72.972.51−1.41−2.11 to 0.72<0.001
Chinese71.803.00−3.01−4.70 to 1.310.001
Other73.922.50−0.56−1.58 to 0.470.288
Sex
Female (reference)74.332.31−0.49−1.02 to 0.040.068
Male73.762.66
Continuous variables
School performance*0.01−0.010 to 0.020.486
Socioeconomic status (Index of Multiple Deprivation; percentile)0.003−0.01 to 0.010.458
Polar 3†0.05−0.15 to 0.240.634
UCAS Tariff Points0.010.003 to 0.020.010
Model parameters
B070.14
R0.35
R20.12
  • *School performance-Based on the percentage of students achieving 3 A-levels or equivalent.

  • †Neighbourhood higher education participation (1=Lowest Participation to 5=Highest Participation).

  • ‡Defined by percentiles of Index of Multiple Deprivation (1=Most deprived to =100 Least deprived). IMD link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/english-indices-of-deprivation-2010.